the pattern that repeats
watched this exact play happen in 2014, 2017, 2020. January 2026 is the same pattern, just bigger numbers.
i've lived through three major Bitcoin cycles now. 2013 (the rise), 2017 (the frenzy), 2020 (the recovery).
January 2026 is following the exact same pattern:
Sell-off in prior quarter. Institutional dip-buying. Retail capitulation. Early rallies. FOMO headlines. Inflows.
We're at step five right now. Step six is always the same: a consolidation period where people realize whether they bought the right thing or just rode a wave.
The people who survive step six are the ones who stayed convicted through steps one and two.
Here's why this matters: if you're a founder and you see this pattern in your market—where early believers are rewarded, and FOMO players get punished—you need to ask yourself: am i building for the early believers or for the FOMO crowd?
The best companies are built for the early believers. They're the ones who stay. They're the ones who build things with you, not just buy from you.