the fatigue filter
they are calling it bitcoin fatigue. bloomberg ran the headline today and it is spreading everywhere. fourth annual loss. the first one in history without a major scandal attached. no exchange collapsed this time. no founder was hauled off in handcuffs. no massive rug pull. it is just... boredom. the tourists are checking out because the rollercoaster stopped doing loops and they are realized they actually have to wait.
here is what the tourists never understand and probably never will: the boring parts are the feature, not the bug. every single technological shift follows the same arc. ridicule. resistance. magazine cover. but between resistance and that magazine cover? there is a long, quiet stretch where absolutely nothing seems to happen. that is the dip. the dip is where most people quit. not because they failed or lost all their money—but because they got tired of waiting for the next dopamine hit. i watched this happen in 2014. i saw it again in 2018. and again in 2022. the cycle is as predictable as the seasons but it catches people off guard every time.
the headlines are screaming about death and irrelevance again. but while the crowd walks away, the believers keep building. the difference between a tourist and a settler isnt just conviction. it is a tolerance for boredom. tourists need the rush of daily gains to feel alive. settlers understand that real positioning happens in the quiet moments when nobody is looking. the same information is available to everyone: the fed's next move, etf flows, macro headwinds. but information without the patience to act on it is just noise.
risk isnt actually about volatility. if you think a 20% drop is a crisis, you are still playing the wrong game. risk is a function of information and control. if you know why you are here, a down year isnt a tragedy. it is a filter. it is the network shaking off the people who were only here for the exit liquidity. the question isnt whether bitcoin will recover. it has done that every single time. the real question is whether you will still be here when it does. are you a passenger or are you the one holding the map?
