what if the benchmark changed??

every fund manager has a hurdle rate... the minimum return that makes an investment worth their time. for decades it was treasury yields. safe, boring, made sense. but im starting to wonder if that whole framework is breaking down.

adam back said something that stuck with me. bitcoin is effectively the hurdle rate, he said. its very hard to outperform bitcoin. and i keep coming back to that. what if every investment decision now comes down to one question... can this beat bitcoin over the next ten years? that startup, that rental property, that diversified portfolio everyone keeps pushing.

less than 1% of companies hold bitcoin. but the ones that do seem to have stopped asking "should we buy" and started asking "can we actually outperform just... holding." maybe thats naive. maybe im missing somthing obvious.

but treasurys dont feel like the safe benchmark anymore. they feel like what you hold when you havent updated your assumptions about whats actually hapening.

is the measuring stick just different now?