fidelity said $1 billion per bitcoin by 2038. heres what they actually got right

everyone loves to dunk on old price predictions. fidelity’s jurrien timmer said bitcoin could hit $1 billion per coin by 2038 back in 2021. sounds crazy right?

but here's the thing most people miss when they laugh at these numbers. timmer wasnt really predicting bitcoin’s price. he was predicting the dollars collapse.

his whole model was based on the fact that $1 invested in stocks in the 1700s is worth about $4 billion today. not because stocks are magic, but because the dollar has been melting for 250 years. he just extended that math forward another 20 years and applied it to bitcoin.

$1 million today becoming $1 billion in two decades isn’t crazy if you understand what’s happening to fiat. its not that bitcoin goes up. its that everything measured in dollars goes up because the ruler keeps shrinking. this is the part that never makes the headlines. the billion dollar prediction isn’t bullish on bitcoin. its bearish on the dollar. and if the last few years taught us anything, the fed will print when things get hard. they always do. they always will.

imagine holding something that doesn't dilute. bitcoin's fixed supply stands firm while dollars flood the system. that's the unexpected twist: what looks like hype is actually a hedge against erosion. concrete example: look at gold's price over centuries—not gold inflating, but currencies deflating against it. bitcoin accelerates that, with network effects stocks never had.

you feel it already, that quiet worry when bills climb but wages lag. the system's rigged for devaluation, making savers losers. timmer's model isn't pie-in-the-sky; it's historical math applied forward. credible voices like fidelity see the pattern, and they're stacking accordingly.

emotionally, it stings—watching purchasing power slip away. but here's the story that sticks: you're not powerless. grasp this now, and you turn the tide. seth godin would say it's remarkable: a simple idea spreading because it's true. measure wealth in shrinking dollars, and bitcoin's "absurd" numbers make sense.

so maybe the question isnt whether bitcoin can hit some absurd number. maybe the question is whether the dollar can hold itself together long enough for that number to matter. what are you actually measuring when you measure in dollars?