the question that changed everything i thought i knew about risk

twenty years ago i sat in a room on the 40th floor of a toronto high-rise. twenty young people. one entrepreneur. he asked the room why not entrepreneurship. same answer from everyone. too risky. then he asked the question that rewired my brain forever. "what is risk a function of?" silence.

"information and control."

two people. an anvil falling from the sky. one tied to a chair. one free to move. who's at more risk? obvious.... the one without control. same setup. both can move. but only one knows the anvil is coming. who's at more risk now? the one without information. risk isnt about the activity. its about how much you know and how much you can do about it. then came the gut punch.

john has been at his company thirty years. monday morning, new boss walks in. "john, youre fired." how much control did john have? none. how much information? zero. he was barbecuing on sunday. the entrepreneur can pivot. renegotiate. see trouble coming. adapt. the entrepreneur isnt the risky one. the employee is.

we just spent our whole lives being told the opposite. years later when i discovered bitcoin.... it all clicked.

your money in a bank. how much control do you have? they can freeze it. seize it. tell you what you can buy. how much information? do you know what the fed will do next quarter? what inflation will be in five years? whether your currency will hold value or collapse like it has in dozens of countries? your savings account is john. tied to a chair. anvil overhead. barbecuing on sunday while decisions that will destroy your purchasing power are made in rooms youll never enter. everyone calls this safe. now bitcoin.

21 million coins. ever. no exceptions. no politician can print more. the rules are written in code anyone can verify. thats information. with self-custody nobody can freeze it. nobody can seize it. you can walk across any border with your net worth in your head. thats control. so which is actually risky?

the thing everyone calls safe.... where you have no information and no control? or the thing everyone calls risky.... where the rules are transparent and entirely in your hands? volatility isnt risk. volatility is just movement. risk is not knowing whats happening to your money and not being able to do anything about it. your "stable" fiat loses purchasing power every year by design. bitcoin moves fast. fiat bleeds slow. only one is honest about what its doing.

everyone thinks theyre safe. corner office. retirement account. stable life. but the anvil is always falling. the only question is whether you see it coming.... and whether you can move.