why timing is weird
you can call the direction right and the timing wrong and still lose. this is what January taught me.
early January, i told someone: "institutions will move capital into Bitcoin in 2026."
i was right on direction. MicroStrategy bought. ETFs flowed. Institutions did move capital.
but i didn't predict the pace. i thought we'd see this spread over six months. it happened in three weeks.
that's timing. and timing is the thing that kills good theses.
this is true for founders too. you can have the right thesis about a market—"robotics will be bigger, AI will power them"—and still fail because you shipped two years too early or two years too late.
the people who win aren't the ones who call the direction. they're the ones who call the speed of adoption.
that requires different skills. not just vision. sensitivity to what's actually happening on the ground.
when i meet founders, i ask: what's changing right now that makes your thing possible today, not in 2029? The ones with good answers are the ones who've studied the pace of change, not just the direction.