Predicting the Future
Some have labeled me as the early bird of various future trends - the Bitcoin advocate before it became mainstream, the Tesla enthusiast ahead of its monumental surge, the supporter of cutting-edge realms like robotics and AI before they were in vogue. I even had my fingers on the pulse of the political world, predicting Donald Trump's rise at the beginning of his campaign. Recently, I've been delving into the promising world of second brain tech like Roam Research. You might also remember me as one of the pioneers who realized the potential of Twitter and the revolutionary impact of cannabis. Behind these seemingly 'futuristic' predictions lies a methodology — a disciplined approach driven by logic, reasoning, and insatiable curiosity. Let's delve into it.
Back to Basics
My method for predicting future trends is rooted in "First Principles Thinking", a concept endorsed by Elon Musk. It involves breaking down complex subjects to their most basic, irrefutable truths and reasoning upwards from there. It means digging beneath the surface, not accepting things as they are presented, and harnessing an unquenchable curiosity about the world and its many intricacies.
Objectivity and Detachment
To observe and understand the future, one must cultivate a sense of detachment and objectivity. It's easy to fall prey to prevailing sentiments, media narratives, and societal norms. Conforming is comfortable. But to anticipate what's next, one must step back, scrutinize, ask questions, and form independent judgments. Often, this means standing apart from the crowd, challenging the conventional wisdom, and exploring unchartered territories — but that's where progress lies.
Embracing Information
In this era of information explosion, making sense of the deluge is a challenge. But to predict the future, one must not shy away. Instead, embrace the overflow, develop the ability to separate signal from noise. This involves reading extensively, corroborating facts, checking and rechecking, and continually refreshing one's understanding. It requires humility to change opinions when new, credible information comes to light.
The Method in Action
When I advocated for Bitcoin ten years ago or became an early adopter of Twitter, these weren't whimsical decisions. They were calculated predictions based on understanding the foundational principles of blockchain technology and social media's influence, objectively gauging their potential to disrupt the status quo. Predicting Trump's rise was an interpretation of societal undercurrents and the power of populist sentiment, while recognizing a void in the political landscape.
My decision to invest in a Tesla, my enthusiasm for AI, robotics, and the rise of cannabis were rooted in a thorough understanding of their technological foundations, market trends, societal needs, and their potential to revolutionize respective sectors. My interest in Roam Research was a result of recognizing its unique value in an increasingly digital world, and predicting its importance in future information management.
In essence, predicting the future isn't about crystal balls or psychic powers. It’s a blend of rigorous thought, ceaseless curiosity, and a fearless commitment to understanding the world in its current state and its potential evolution. It's about daring to tread where others haven't, even at the risk of being labelled 'crazy', until the rest of the world catches up. In the words of Robert Frost, it’s about taking the road less traveled by, and that indeed makes all the difference.
Welcome to my world. The future is already here. Are you ready to step in?