the house of cards

fifty years. that’s how long the assad family ruled syria. fifty years of an iron grip that felt totally immovable. it seemed inevitable... it seemed permanent. until it wasn't. in just twelve days the whole thing collapsed. it didnt happen with a long whimper or a slow decline. it was a cascade. soldiers abandoned their posts. cities fell like dominoes. the man who seemed eternal boarded a plane to moscow and that was it. the regime was over before the headlines could even keep up.

everyone is shocked right now but the signs were always there if u were looking. russia was distracted by ukraine. iran was bleeding from israeli strikes. hezbollah was wounded. the economy had cratered years ago and soldiers hadn't been paid. the people were starving while the elite sat in palaces. the foundation was hollow. the structure stayed standing only because no one pushed. then someone finally pushed and the whole thing folded like a cheap tent.

here is what most observers miss... stability and permanence are not the same thing. something can appear stable for decades—until the moment it isn't. we get lulled into thinking that just because something was here yesterday it will be here tomorrow. but first principles thinking isnt about predicting the exact moment of a crash. it is about seeing the cracks in the foundation while everyone else is busy admiring the facade. when i saw bitcoin early or tesla before its surge or twitter when it was still raw—i wasnt being psychic. i was just asking different questions.

i wasnt asking "is this popular?" or "will this work today?" i was asking "what would have to be true for this to be inevitable?" and "is this structurally sound?" the crowd looks at surfaces because surfaces are easy to see. the curious dig beneath because that is where the truth lives. assad's syria looked solid because no one tested it. the moment the test came the answer arrived in twelve days. it turns out fifty years of "stability" was just a long wait for a twelve-day collapse.

so what else in your world looks permanent but isnt? what institutions or assumptions are you treating like bedrock when they might actually be hollow? maybe it is the way we think about work or the way we trust certain currencies or the career path you think is safe. the future doesn't announce itself with a trumpet. it reveals what was always true under the surface. your only job is to stop looking at the paint and start looking at the beams. what are you holding onto that is actually a house of cards?